The Myth of Hindsight

I wanted this blog to be about interesting and relevant observations from the world of Project Management and Project Controls. Over time I hope to develop this into a 'Toolbox' (hence the 'PM Shed') of helpful tips, guidance and some templates and examples to aid you on your way.

To some, project controls and Earned Value principals are a mystery, to others it is an inconvenient 'box' that project managers are made to 'tick' by micro-managing directors, but to me it is a fundamentally important aspect of all successful projects and, if done right, is an incredibly rewarding field. That said, the point of my first post is a more general one that can be applied throughout business, or indeed life.

The assessment of decision-making

"The decision to close the roof on centre-court turned out to be a good one after torrential rain hit Wimbledon this evening"

This statement, heard on the radio during the tennis tournament back in June, is logically incorrect. The 'wisdom' of any decision cannot, and should not, be assessed based upon hindsight because this information was not available to the decision-maker at the time. And yet it is something we hear all the time - particularly in Project Management.

A risk review for instance should be judged upon the thoroughness of the process, the range of opinions consulted and the technical understanding of the deliverables and their requirements. Therefore the 'quality' of the resulting risk register can be assessed before the project even begins. Should an unknown risk affect the programme, thereby absorbing all contingency funds and eating into the margin, this should not, by default, black-mark the PM as a poor risk manager.

Sceptics might suggest that this gives PMs a get-out-of-jail-free card. How can failure or poor performance result in a thumbs-up for the choice that delivered it? Besides, the impact of a decision is often far easier to gauge than the diligence of the decision-making process, but does that make it a better measure of judgement?

I would argue that it is dangerous to review decisions, and develop decision-making processes, purely on the basis of hindsight alone. All projects, and indeed all choices in life, have an element of risk or a 'known unknown', which is to say that it could end in failure. But who is to say that the alternative choice or choices would have had more favourable results?